Methodology · 2026-W19

AI is the
X-axis.

We measure what AI believes about electronic component categories. Everything else — OEM, distributor, aggregator, buyer-search — is a reference frame for comparison.

AI is the X-axis. Other channels are reference frames. We don't predict — we observe what AI is doing and which channel shaped it. Anyone can compute embedding distances; only we have the cohort substrate to attribute AI's vocabulary to a specific reference frame across 109+ categories.
— CategoryRank substrate · 2026-W19
The headline finding · 2026-W19

When AI doesn't anchor to the OEM, it usually anchors to buyer search.

57% of non-OEM-anchored slugs in 2026-W19 are SEARCH-anchored — 39 of 69 (39 SEARCH + 24 DIST + 6 AGG closest, of 174 cohort-stable categories). The remaining 30 are anchored to distributor or aggregator language.

Replayable arithmetic: 39 / (39 + 24 + 6) = 39/69 = 56.5%. Reproducible from our weekly per-frame attribution counts for 2026-W19. Alternative framing for a larger denominator: 22% of all cohort-stable categories (39 of 174) — “roughly 1 in 4 categories AI hears the buyer first.”

This is the substrate's first cohort-stable week. Prior weeks (W17/W18) had cohort composition still shifting; the methodology lock-in date is 2026-W19. We'll surface the W19 → W20 trend on the next refresh.

The tensor

The weekly record.

The evidence base · time-indexed
2025-W512026-W20
weeks of data
21
AI observations
26.4M
brands tracked
35,746
frontier LLMs
16+
The substrate

One category, five vocabularies.

For each of 253 categories in the CategoryRank Ontology, we collect the vocabulary five distinct vantages use to describe it:

  • AItop-alias forms emitted by 10+ LLMs (US, EU, CN-domiciled) when prompted for the category. This is what AI remembers — the object of measurement.
  • OEMthe brand's own product-page taxonomy, Wayback-validated weekly. Reference frame: how the maker speaks.
  • DISTparametric tree forms from authorized distributors — Mouser, DigiKey, Arrow, Avnet, Newark, LCSC. Reference frame: how the channel speaks.
  • AGGcategory labels from aggregator / search-surface layers — Octopart, Findchips, Oemsecrets. Reference frame: how the discovery layer speaks.
  • SEARCHtop-10 buyer queries per slug from a leading search-query data provider. Reference frame: how buyers speak.

AI is the subject of the sentence. The other four are reference frames we compare AI against — not products we sell.

The ontology

Continuously refreshed. OEM-anchored.

The CategoryRank Ontology is the taxonomy underneath every verdict on this site. We optimize it to maximize semantic closeness to OEM canonical names — the anchor — while amplifying coverage through distributor parametric trees and aggregator discovery-layer labels.

New categories emerge in the wild. We observe and integrate them. Vocabulary drift gets tracked week by week, never smoothed into a single snapshot. The result: a living standard that stays accurate to how the supply chain actually talks, instead of locking the map at the moment of publication.

Every category number on this site cites a specific ontology version. As the universe shifts, the version increments and the delta is replayable.

The math

Centroid + cosine.

For each (frame × category) pair we compute a centroid in a 1024-dimensional embedding space. AI's centroid is compared against each reference-frame centroid via cosine similarity, then quantile-normalized across all categories to correct for short-form / long-form text bias.

The closest reference frame determines where AI's vocabulary is anchored. Strength of anchoring is the cosine.

The verdict

Anchoring × manufacturing risk.

Crossed with the manufacturing-risk composite (a separate scorecard covering geo concentration, brand concentration, substitute scarcity, naming divergence, and inventory thinness), each category lands in one of four quadrants:

HOLD
Channel consensus on the category + supply intact. No action.
HEDGE
AI consolidated on one frame + supply thin. Add a second-flag supplier.
SEO_PLAY
AI lost the category vocabulary + supply fine. Brand/SEO investment.
ARBITRAGE
Clean dislocation: AI fragmented + supply intact. Buy the gap (rare — 0 in W19).

Anchoring and fragmentation thresholds are heuristic and currently uncalibrated; they will be re-tuned with a held-out validation set after the demo cycle.

The lenses

Same measurement, four operating brains.

The same quadrant verdict drives different action verbs depending on whose book is reading the data:

OEMDEFEND / CAPTURE / RECLAIM / INVEST_IN_BRAND_VOCAB

The brand making the parts asks: is AI hearing my language, the channel's, or buyers'?

BrokerHOLD / HEDGE / GROW

The inventory operator asks: where is supply thin enough that I should second-source?

DistributorSTABLE / HOLD / SEO_OPPORTUNITY

The catalog operator asks: where is the channel narrative still intact, and where am I exposed to a buyer-search divergence?

AggregatorSTABLE / FLAG

The discovery layer asks: where is buyer language ahead of AI's canonical?

Honest by subtraction

What this measurement is and isn't.

The substrate is honest about its own limits. When it updates, this list updates.

  • Centroid is an average across all AI/OEM/DIST/AGG forms in our W19 cohort observation; smooths over within-frame variance. Cohort disagreement score reported separately to surface AI internal fragmentation.
  • SEARCH centroid uses top-10 buyer keywords per slug from a leading buyer-query data provider; short-form text systematically embeds at lower cosine to long-form OEM text, hence quantile-normalized distances reported alongside raw cosines.
  • Anchoring thresholds are heuristic and uncalibrated — should be re-tuned with held-out validation set post-demo.
  • Slugs with missing vantages (e.g. no DIST coverage in cohort) are flagged as data-incomplete and the missing frames listed; they cannot be cleanly classified.
  • Quadrant assignment uses scorecard manufacturing-risk band as orthogonal axis; scorecard composite weights are heuristic (per our manufacturing-risk scorecard).
  • Brand-level drill-down (per-brand AI-vs-frame attribution) deferred to v2 of this artifact — would power /lens/oem customer-specific 'you are anchored to DIST' callouts.
  • This is a DESCRIPTIVE per-slug attribution. Not causal. Useful for identifying ARBITRAGE candidates (high-risk + fragmented), not for forecasting.
  • Buyer-search coverage is partial: 112 of 253 slugs (44%) have a buyer-keyword pull. The remaining slugs have no Buyer-search field — this is absent-not-zero.
Provenance

Every number cites its source.

Every number on every lens page is reproducible from our weekly substrate — SHA-pinned per artifact, with a replay manifest committed to source control. Derived rollups regenerate weekly on the same lock; nothing on a customer-facing page is hand-edited.

We render Expanding coverage categories honestly rather than hiding them. Cohort substrate composition is disclosed when it changes between weeks. AI's internal disagreement (the variance across model cohort) is surfaced as a separate signal on every drill page, never smoothed into the centroid.